Australian jobs jump in April, underpin economy
Thursday May 8, 2008, 12:20 pm
(Adds analyst, market reaction)
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, May 8 (Reuters) - Australia employment growth blew
past expectations in April, pointing to a still-healthy labour
market even as other parts of the economy buckle before higher
interest rates and rising living costs.
The Australian dollar rallied after Thursday's labour
report from the government showed employers created 25,400 net
new jobs in April. That was the 18th straight month of gains
and easily topped forecasts of a 10,000 rise.
The jobless rate did tick up to 4.2 percent, from 4.1
percent in March, but only because more people were looking for
work. The participation rate climbed 0.2 percentage points to a
record high of 65.4 percent as more women joined the labour
force.
"There's absolutely no sign of any weakness in the labour
market," said Brian Redican, a senior economist at Macquarie.
The rise in the participation rate meant that strong demand
for labour was being met with increased supply, so it was not
directly inflationary, he added.
"Still, more jobs means more household income and that
should support economic growth. So in that sense, there's no
pressure valve here for the RBA and its concerns about
inflation."
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at
a 12-year high of 7.25 percent at its monthly policy meeting
this week and warned that it might yet have to tighten further
if domestic demand did not slow as expected.
Analysts noted that employment does tend to lag big turns
in the economy and other indicators were signalling a slowdown.
Consumers, shaken by rising mortgage and living costs, have
cut back spending on retail goods and autos, while the housing
market has cooled and business activity softened.
WATCHING WAGES
Yet while firms were worried about the outlook there was no
sign as yet of them firing people. Indeed, most consider a lack
of suitable labour as more of a constraint than weak demand.
In the year to April some 311,400 new jobs were created, a
blistering result for an economy with a potential labour force
of just 11.1 million. Growth in the past year has been greatest
in utilities, construction, manufacturing, education and
health.
While the mining industry has been booming, it is a
capital-intensive business and jobs growth has been flat. The
sector accounts for just 1.3 percent of all employed, compared
to 11 percent for both manufacturing and health.
Such speedy growth has stoked concerns of a wages
break-out, particularly as core inflation hit a 17-year peak of
4.2 percent in the first quarter.
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens was fretting about it this week.
"Should demand not slow as expected or should expectations of
high ongoing inflation begin to affect wage and price setting,
that outlook would need to be reviewed," he said.
Up to now broad measures of wages have been remarkably
steady, showing growth of around 4.0 percent a year.
However, Australia's unions, emboldened by the election of
the left-leaning Labor Party to government, have been agitating
for much bigger pay raises.
Teachers in the state of Victoria this week won an
effective pay increase of 15 percent for this year.
"The Victorian teachers pay deal is likely to be a template
for public sector cost of living adjustments, and the risk is
that these flow over to the rest of the economy," said Matthew
Johnson, a senior economist at ICAP.
He worried that non-unionised sectors would be forced to
follow to prevent skilled labour from bleeding away.
"With 4 percent unemployment, this dynamic could be swift,"
said Johnson. "There is a very real risk that high inflation
will become embedded in wage settlements, which would mean
interest rates have to rise again."
(Reporting by Wayne Cole; Editing by James Thornhill)
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