Thailand's Mobile Market Reached 53 Million Subscribers by End-2007

Friday May 23 7:44 PM

This Annual Publication profiles two of the countries of South East Asia. The neighbouring countries of Thailand and Myanmar continue to provide an interesting contrast. Similar in both population size and land area, the two countries have been developing along totally different economic paths. Thailand, a constitutional monarchy, which has certainly been struggling with its democratic processes and institutions, has nonetheless been able to offer an essentially open market. On the other hand we have Myanmar operating as it has under a repressive military dictatorship for many years now and presenting a market that remains totally closed and centrally controlled. GDP per capita in Thailand is running at around US$4,000; in Myanmar it is less than US$250. The development of their respective telecom sectors reflects the same divide. In mobile and Internet penetrations Thailand leaves Myanmar far behind. Even in basic fixed-line telephone services, a segment of the market that the Thais have not given any priority, Myanmar is continuing to lag far behind Thailand.

The overthrow of Thailand's Shinawatra government in a military coup in September 2006 was followed by a period of government by a military-appointed administration; happily this interim period ended without too much pain and certainly no further military intervention when general elections were held in late 2007 and a new government was installed. As the country continued its search for increased political stability, there can be no doubt that the upheaval over the last few years has had considerable negative impact on (1) the Thai economy, (2) the administration of the country and (3) investor confidence.

The telecom sector witnessed the appointment by the post-coup government of a Minister for Information and Communication Technology who, at least initially, took a policy position that was essentially against what were seen as Thaksin Shinawatra's telecom reforms. The new minister, for example, wanted to roll back the process of privatisation of the two state-owned telcos, TOT and CAT; further to this, he wanted to restore some of their regulatory powers. While generally seen within the industry as a rather regressive administration, some positive reforms did emerge during this period.

Despite all the difficulties, Thailand's telecom sector has continued to display a surprising amount of energy. The country's mobile telephone market in particular has recorded strong annual growth rates, the recent high level of growth taking the industry by surprise. By early 2008, mobile penetration was around 82%. In a matter of only six years, the mobile market had moved from 8 million in 2001 to 53 million in 2007.

Apart from the booming mobile sector, the Internet is an area of the Thai market that has also been popular - at least in its dial-up form. Oddly, the development of broadband Internet has been languishing. It was not until 2005 that the number of broadband subscribers started to move in any serious fashion. A reasonably strong growth trend has continued since then and by end-2007 there were around 1 million broadband subscribers in the country. Broadband penetration was still under 2%, however.

Thailand has certainly been seeing the benefits of a liberalised market with the highly competitive mobile sector being the big beneficiary. Nevertheless, sectoral reform remains unfinished business. It took four years after the enabling Telecommunications Act was adopted as law in 2000 for the country's new regulator, the National Telecommunications Commission, to be put in place. And once it became operational, the NTC had to contend with the volatile political environment following the 2006 coup, again throwing uncertainty over the regulator's role. Even with a newly-elected government in place in early 2008 the future direction for the regulator was not exactly clear. For the country overview, see chapter 2, page 16.

Myanmar's telecom sector continues to be dominated by the state-owned monopoly telephone service provider, Myanmar Posts and Telecommunications (MPT). This ministry's form has indeed been consistent with the overall operating environment of an economy where change is simply slow. The country has been battling both economic problems and a troubled political climate. Soaring inflation remains a major problem (34% in 2007). The country's centrally planned economy is plagued by weak fiscal and monetary management, resulting in major economic imbalances, which are not likely to be easily or quickly resolved.

These problems, combined with a disturbing lack of transparency, have not surprisingly frightened off foreign investment. In the meantime, the telecom sector is characterised by what can only be described as stunted growth. In fact, following the political and social upheaval of late 2007 subscriber data reports suggested that things were actually going backwards.

The telecom sector reflects the overall state of the national economy and society. It should also be noted that Myanmar's official economic data is not considered reliable, making actual growth rates difficult to ascertain. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to assume that fixed-line telephone penetration remains at or below 1%; the penetration of mobile services is even less than that; and Internet access continues to be severely restricted in its availability to the general public.

At the same time, given the state of the economy and the absence of serious foreign investment, the MPT's level of capital investment in telecom's infrastructure has been depressingly low. To cap this off, the country suffered a devastating cyclone in May 2008 resulting in a huge loss of life and massive damage to the country's fragile infrastructure. For the country overview, see chapter 1, page 1.

Key highlights:

- Thailand's mobile market had reached 53 million subscribers by end-2007. After more than seven straight years of strong growth, the annual increase in the mobile subscribers was still running at over 30% coming into 2008. For more information, see chapter 2.10, page 98.

- The broadband Internet market in Thailand saw another year of vigorous subscriber growth in 2007, running at an annual rate of around 60% with all the signs suggesting that this would continue through 2008.

- While interest in broadband services was finally picking up in Thailand, it was happening from a relatively small base; overall broadband penetration remained low (under 2%). For more information, see chapter 2.8, page 79.

- Despite a slowing in economic growth following the September 2006 coup, the post-coup government, after a number of missteps, worked hard to stimulate the economy, looking to such initiatives as free trade agreements. Then in December 2007 a newly-elected government committed itself to the task of getting the country back on track.

- Myanmar's mobile market, after reportedly growing at an annual rate in excess of 100% in 2006, managed another healthy expansion in 2007 with a 40% jump in subscribers.

- Of course, this growth was from a low subscriber base in the first place - up from 126,000 subscribers (0.3% penetration) in 2005 to 325,000 (0.7%) in 2007. For more information, see chapter 1.8, page 12.

- With information on growth patterns being difficult to obtain, one source suggested that mobile subscriber numbers had in fact declined from a mid-2007 peak.

- From totally different perspectives Thailand and Myanmar must both seriously address regulatory reform; Thailand needs to work to get fresh momentum in its stalled reform processes; Myanmar needs to get some sort of reform process started. The latter has a lot further to travel in this regard.

Myanmar versus Thailand - mobile, fixed-line and Internet subscriber penetration - 2007

Country Mobile penetration Fixed-line penetration Internet penetration

Myanmar 0.7% 1% 0.01%

Thailand 81% 11% 11%

Subjects covered include:

Key Statistics

Market and Industry Overviews

Regulatory Environment

Major Players (fixed and mobile)

Infrastructure

Mobile Voice and Data Markets

Internet, VoIP, IPTV

Broadband (DSL, cable TV, wireless, FttH)

Researcher: Peter Evans

Data in this report is the latest available at the time of preparation and may not be for the current year.

CONTENTS:

1. Myanmar

1.1 Key statistics

1.2 Telecommunications market

1.2.1 Overview of Myanmar's telecom market

1.2.2 Political and social upheaval in Myanmar - late 2007

1.3 Regulatory environment

1.3.1 Overview

1.4 Telecommunications infrastructure

1.4.1 National infrastructure

1.4.2 International infrastructure

1.5 Data market

1.6 Internet market

1.6.1 Overview

1.7 Broadcasting market

1.7.1 Overview

1.8 Mobile communications

1.8.1 Overview of Myanmar's mobile market

1.8.2 Sole mobile operator

1.8.3 Mobile services

2. Thailand

2.1 Key statistics

2.2 Telecommunications market

2.2.1 Overview of Thailand's telecom market

2.3 Regulatory environment

2.3.1 Regulatory overview

2.3.2 Telecommunications Act

2.3.3 Concession conversion

2.3.4 National numbering scheme

2.4 Fixed network voice services

2.4.1 Market overview

2.4.2 National networks

2.4.3 International networks

2.4.4 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)

2.5 Fixed network operators in Thailand

2.5.1 Major telecom operators by market segment

2.5.2 TOT Corp

2.5.3 CAT Telecom

2.5.4 Proposed CAT/TOT merger

2.5.5 TelecomAsia/True Corp

2.5.6 Thai Telephone & Telecommunications (TT&T)

2.6 Telecommunications infrastructure

2.6.1 National telecom network

2.6.2 International infrastructure

2.7 Internet market

2.7.1 Overview

2.7.2 ISP market

2.7.3 Major ISPs

2.7.4 Thailand Internet Exchange (THIX)

2.7.5 Regulatory issues

2.7.6 Internet cafes

2.7.7 Content

2.7.8 Information Technology policy

2.8 Broadband market

2.8.1 Overview

2.8.2 Digital Subscriber Line (DSL)

2.8.3 Cable modems

2.8.4 Internet via satellite

2.8.5 Wireless Internet

2.8.6 Major broadband operators

2.9 Broadcasting market

2.9.1 Overview

2.9.2 Regulatory issues

2.9.3 Digital TV

2.9.4 Broadband TV (IPTV)

2.9.5 Free-to-Air (FTA) TV

2.9.6 Pay TV

2.9.7 Cable TV

2.9.8 Satellite TV

2.10 Mobile communications

2.10.1 Overview of Thailand's mobile market

2.10.2 Mobile technologies

2.10.3 Major mobile operators

2.10.4 Mobile voice services

2.10.5 Mobile data services

2.10.6 Mobile content and applications

2.11 Forecasts

2.11.1 Forecasts - fixed-line services to 2017

2.11.2 Forecasts - Internet market to 2017

2.11.3 Forecasts - mobile market to 2017

3. Glossary of Abbreviations

Table 1 - Country statistics Myanmar - 2008

Table 2 - Telecom revenue and investment statistics - 2005

Table 3 - Telephone network statistics - 2007

Table 4 - Internet user statistics - 2007

Table 5 - Mobile statistics - 2007

Table 6 - National telecommunications authorities

Table 7 - Fixed lines in service - 1990; 1995 - 2007

Table 8 - Internet users - 1999 - 2007

Table 9 - Internet subscribers - 1999 - 2007

Table 10 - Broadband subscribers - 2005 - 2007

Table 11 - Key broadcasting statistics - 2006

Table 12 - Mobile subscribers - 1995 - 2007

Table 13 - MPT Mobile subscribers and annual change by system - June 2007

Table 14 - Country statistics Thailand - 2008

Table 15 - Telecom revenue and investment statistics - 2006

Table 16 - Telephone network statistics - 2007

Table 17 - Internet user statistics - 2007

Table 18 - Broadband statistics - 2007

Table 19 - Mobile statistics - 2007

Table 20 - National telecommunications authorities

Table 21 - Fixed-lines and teledensity - 1995 - 2007

Table 22 - Number of public payphones by provider - 2006

Table 23 - Internet users - 1996 - 2007

Table 24 - Internet subscribers - 1996 - 2007

Table 25 - International Internet bandwidth - 2000 - 2008

Table 26 - Broadband subscribers - 2001 - 2008

Table 27 - Broadband subscribers and households - 2007

Table 28 - DSL subscribers - 2002 - 2007

Table 29 - True broadband subscribers - 2004; 2006 - 2007

Table 30 - Key broadcasting statistics - 2007

Table 31 - Pay TV subscribers - 1996 - 2002

Table 32 - Pay TV subscribers by platform - 2002 - 2007

Table 33 - UBC/True Visions subscriber growth - 1998 - 2007

Table 34 - Mobile subscribers - 1998 - 2008

Table 35 - Mobile services revenue and ARPU - 1998 - 2007

Table 36 - Mobile operators, subscribers and market share - 2007

Table 37 - Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change - 2007

Table 38 - Prepaid subscribers and percentage of subscriber base by operator - June 2007

Table 39 - Forecast fixed line growth - lower market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 40 - Forecast fixed line growth - higher market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 41 - Forecast Internet subscriber growth - lower market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 42 - Forecast Internet subscriber growth - higher market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 43 - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - lower market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Table 44 - Forecast mobile subscriber growth - higher market scenario - 2007; 2012; 2017

Exhibit 1 - Overview of MPT's CDMA service

Exhibit 2 - Major operators by market segment

Exhibit 3 - Key service concessions

Exhibit 4 - National satellite network - 2007

Exhibit 5 - Licensed ISPs in Thailand - 2007

Exhibit 6 - ISPs operated by telecom companies

Exhibit 7 - FTA TV broadcasters

Exhibit 8 - Major mobile operators - 2008

For more information visit http://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/c92742.

Contact:

Research and Markets
Laura Wood, Senior Manager
Fax: +353 1 4100 980
press@researchandmarkets.com

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