Easy Forex Daily Outlook

Market Summary

Stocks Rally into the New Year

U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) stock markets rallied but economic data kept the USD weak. Stocks reacted positively to news that GM would receive $6bn for its car financing arm from the TARP. December Consumer Confidence fell to 38 vs. 45 expected a new all time low. Case Shiller fell -2.2% in October vs. a milder -1.8% forecast. In U.S. share markets, the NASDAQ was up 40 points (2.67%) and the Dow Jones was up 184 points (2.17%). Crude Oil closed down -$0.99 ending the New York session at $39.03 per barrel. Looking ahead, October Case Shiller House Price index is expected to fall -1.8%. Also released, Weekly Jobless claims are seen at 565K vs. 586K previously.

The Euro (EUR) found support in Asia and early Europe before again reversing direction in the US session as Oil eased and traders took profits. EUR/GBP again had a run up to the 98 level before also receding back from the lofty levels. Eurozone Private Loans were at 7.1% vs. 7.8 previously. Overall the EUR/USD traded with a low of 1.3989 and a high of 1.4220 before closing the day at 1.4075.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) kept to a tight range against the USD but found direction with GBP weakness and EUR strength. Overall the USDJPY traded with a low of 90.03 and a high of 90.97 before closing the day around 90.30 in the New York session. Japan Markets closed today.

The Sterling (GBP) bounced off year lows as the EUR found strength but was under pressure and couldn't hold above 1.45. EUR/GBP traded above 0.9800 catching the markets attention. Overall the GDP/USD traded with a low of 1.4395 and a high of 1.4548 before closing the day at 1.4450 in the New York session.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) had a very quiet trading day after regaining the 0.6900 level on USD weakness and buoyant stocks. Commodities were mixed with Oil down but metals up. Overall the AUD/USD traded with a low of 0.6876 and a high of 0.6940 before closing the US session at 0.6915.

Gold (XAU) traded in a range as USD weakness was offset by heavy Oil. Overall trading with a low of USD$864 and high of USD$881 before ending the New York session at USD$864 an ounce.

Technical Commentary

• Euro - 1.4110

  Initial support at 1.3916 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.3824 (Dec 19 low). Initial resistance is now located at 1.4258 (76.4% retrace 1.4363 to 1.3917) at followed by 1.4166 (38.2% retrace 1.4719 to 1.3824)

• Yen - 90.25

  Initial support is located at 89.76 (Dec 23 low) followed by 89.11 (Dec 22 low). Initial resistance is now at 90.98 (Dec 29 high) followed by 91.30 (Dec 25 high).

• Pound - 1.4430

  Initial support at 1.4389 (Dec 30 low) followed by 1.4044 (Jan 2002). Initial resistance is now at 1.4552 (Dec 30 high) followed by 1.4771 (Dec 29 low).

• Australian Dollar - 0.6910

  Initial support at 0.6798 (Dec 26 low) followed by the 0.6759 (Dec 24 low). Initial resistance is now at 0.6969 (Dec 29 high) followed by 0.7139 (Dec 18 high).

• Gold - 874

  Initial support at 864 (Dec 29 low) followed by 843 (Dec 26 low). Initial resistance is now at 890 (Dec 29 high) followed by 930 (Oct 10 high).