Bear market

How long do you think this bear market will go on for?

The simple answer is I don't know, but I do believe there has been over-selling. It means great companies are now at very attractive share prices. The rescue package announced on 11 March should help the stock market, but I don't know if it will be enough. It certainly is a good start and I think most central banks see the potential dangers and will keep working on credit markets to get back to normal as quickly as possible.

Until the tech wreck of 2000, which was made worse by 11 September in 2001, bear markets were shortening. That one went from 27 March 2000 to 18 July 2002.

The tech wreck aside the previous bear markets brought overall share losses of 29.7% and 19.3%. The slide can last for 18 months and it can take two and a half years to get past the old high! But there is no science in this and I believe the pent up demand in places such as China, India, Russia, etc. should make for a quicker global recovery and this should be reflected in share prices.

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Bear market

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